Melting Arctic Sea Ice - The Implications of a Warmer Climate

Hello!

It has been way too hot in Los Angeles lately. And surprisingly back home, in Seattle, it has been pretty warm as well. All this heat made me think about the cold, and in particular, the Arctic. 

As you probably know, the world is warming up. This is having a variety of effects, but one particularly dangerous effect is the Arctic sea ice melting. This Arctic sea ice melting will have a plethora of effects as well, such as the declining, or extinct, populations of polar bears. 

Today, I would like to focus on an expected consequence to arise as the Arctic sea ice melts more and more: the opening of trade routes. As the ice melts, there is less ice to take up space in the Arctic ocean. This will allow for countries, specially Russia and Canada, to trade more. 

To give a small introduction on the subject, I would first like to talk about how much the ice has been melting over the past years. Seasons have an affect on how much ice exists. In September, often, the Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum expanse. In March, however, the ice often reaches its maximum expanse. This does not always hold true, but is a general guideline. Below I have created two maps to demonstrate how both the minimum and maximum for sea ice extent has decreased over the years. 

Extent of Sea Ice in March. Data collected from National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The map above demonstrates the extent of Arctic sea ice in March every ten years. As you can tell, the maximum of Arctic sea ice used to be greater than it is now. Significant chunks of ice are completely gone and have not been coming back in March.

Extent of Sea Ice in September. Data collected from National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This map shows the extent of Arctic sea ice in September every ten years. Because the minimum extent of the Arctic sea ice often occurs in September, as the world warms up, the minimum extent becomes smaller and smaller. I think this map better demonstrates how dramatic the decrease in Arctic sea ice is. 

I have also included a figure that validates how intense this decline in Arctic sea ice is. The trend line shows how much this ice sea has declined in March in recent years. It is an overall downward trend.

Average March ice extent for 1979 through 2008. "Arctic sea ice extent at maximum below average, thin". National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Now that you know a little bit more about melting Arctic sea ice, let's delve into an interesting and  troubling topic regarding this ice. As more ice melts, more ocean and thin ice to cut through is available to travel on for shipping companies. It is believed that as more and more ice melts, the NSR, or Northern Sea Route, will become open more often during the year. It is currently only open about four or fives months in a year. This passage cuts the distance between "western Europe and east Asia by roughly a third." Even crazier is the fact that in 2010, only four ships used this passage, but in 2013, 71 ships used this passage!

There are many understandable benefits to using passages near the Arctic for northern countries. Companies could save thousands of dollars in fuel use, and get their product to its destination in a timely and quick manner. However, as tempting as it may be, there are several possible environmental implications. 

Possible Shipping Routes. http://www.economist.com/node/21556798

Oil spills, anyone? The ecosystem in the Arctic is suffering enough as temperatures rise, is it really necessary to place more danger in an already fragile place? Most of these ships do not carry products, like a bunch of iPhones, to other countries. Instead, they often have oil or hard minerals, like zinc. 

It isn't exactly a great idea either to have boats who use fossil fuels to travel through an area that is the way it is as a result of greenhouse gasses from fossil fuels. To me, that is quite the slap in the face. We do not need more ships emitting more greenhouse areas, especially in an area that is quite sensitive to warming temperatures. Also, currently, many ships break the ice, because it is relatively thin, to get through. If the frequency of ships traveling in the Arctic area increases, then the ecosystem in that area will be increasingly affected. This means less polar bears, less whales, and many other beautiful creatures unable to thrive and live in their habitat.

Right now, ships cannot just easily travel through the Arctic area. However, that may not be the case in future years. Hopefully it isn't, but only time can tell.

If you're interested in how the Arctic sea ice has changed over the years, click here for a snazzy little video!

-The Green Sasquatch

Sources:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2008/04/arctic-sea-ice-extent-at-maximum-below-average-thin/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-chameides/arctic-sea-ice-update-the_b_5187264.html
http://www.economist.com/node/21556798
http://www.cfr.org/arctic/thawing-arctic-risks-opportunities/p32082
http://science.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/04/17182162-global-warming-to-open-crazy-shipping-routes-across-arctic?lite